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The WHO has declared a "public health emergency of international concern", the virus having "pandemic potential". A group of NZ schoolchildren, recently returned from Mexico, have been quarantined as a precaution after arriving exhibiting flu-like symptoms.
I have been reading up on this today; >80 dead in Mexico; sporadic cases around the world as its starts to spread; the WHO preparing for a pandemic!!
__________________
Craig Payne
Department of Podiatry
La Trobe University
Melbourne, Australia http://www.latrobe.edu.au/podiatry
__________________________________________________ ___________________________________ God put me on this earth to accomplish a certain number of things - right now I am so far behind, I will never die.
The views expressed above are those of the author and not that of La Trobe University This is where I am, where are you?
Is this the next big global flu epidemic that public health experts have long anticipated and worried about? Is this the novel virus that will kill millions around the world, as pandemics did in 1918, 1957 and 1968?
Can't give you a reference but, on Radio 5 Live this morning, Britain and France are the two countries most equipped to deal iwth a 'flu pandemic.
The UK has 50% population stocks of tamiflu, with the capability of achieving 100% population stocks very quickly.
Tamiflu protects against the swine flu apparently.
As Nicky Campbell siad this morning, " for years we have been worrying about birds, and now its PIGS!"
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“Body: A thing of shreds and patches, borrowed unequally from good and bad ancestors and a misfit from the start”
Being of a paranoid persuasion (2 kids will do that for you!) my loft contains a 3 month supply of tinned and dehydrated goods and a fair bit of bottled water against we don't want to leave the house for a bit. I was cruelly mocked when i laid in this store but i'm bloody glad I did!
Thing with a pandemic, its not just the people who actually die. If enough people get sick, or more to the point stay home because they are SCARED of getting sick, it could all turn sticky very fast. Those in the UK will remember the petrol blockade a few years back and how fast shops started to run out and infrastructure suffered just from inadequate petrol. Petrol which has to be pumped, tankered, dispensed...
What if it hit electricity stations, water works, emergancy services etc as well? What % of the workforce at home sick, scared or dead represents critical mass for infrastructure? 20%? 40%?
Plus I just watched "I am Legend".
Regards
Robert
PS.
If anyone local is now planning to come over mine if it goes sticky you can sod off! I also collect oriental weaponry against the rampaging mobs of looters
Being of a paranoid persuasion (2 kids will do that for you!) my loft contains a 3 month supply of tinned and dehydrated goods and a fair bit of bottled water against we don't want to leave the house for a bit. I was cruelly mocked when i laid in this store but i'm bloody glad I did!
Thing with a pandemic, its not just the people who actually die. If enough people get sick, or more to the point stay home because they are SCARED of getting sick, it could all turn sticky very fast. Those in the UK will remember the petrol blockade a few years back and how fast shops started to run out and infrastructure suffered just from inadequate petrol. Petrol which has to be pumped, tankered, dispensed...
The Bandwagon effect, also known as social proof or "cromo effect" and closely related to opportunism, is the observation that people often do and believe things because many other people do and believe the same things.
Like individuals creating panic buying. Exactly how many Pot Noodles are stored n your loft Robert? I am having trouble finding any chicken flavour!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertisaacs
What if it hit electricity stations, water works, emergancy services etc as well? What % of the workforce at home sick, scared or dead represents critical mass for infrastructure? 20%? 40%?
Critical mass is a sociodynamic term to describe the existence of sufficient momentum in a social system such that the momentum becomes self-sustaining and fuels further growth.
As a simple example, consider a big city. If a person stops and looks up at the sky, nothing will happen. People nearby will go on about their business. If three people stop and look up at the sky, perhaps some people will momentarily turn around, but then continue on their way. But only a small number of people is required— say, 5 to 7 (depending on such factors as the culture, time of day, width of the street, etc) — to cause others to stop and look up at the sky, too. This number is called the "critical mass" or tipping point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertisaacs
Plus I just watched "I am Legend".
Mmmm @ Will Smith.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertisaacs
PS.
If anyone local is now planning to come over mine if it goes sticky you can sod off! I also collect oriental weaponry against the rampaging mobs of looters :
Ever seen the Indiana Jones film where the big guy does his very impessive bit with a sword? Then Indi' shoots him.
Personally I think the safest way to deal with this dreadful outbreak is to not watch the news, listen to the radio or read a newspaper.
Bliss.
Keep well everyone.
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:)
twirly
Mandy Brooks
Brooks Podiatry
S64 0DE
Suffering a fondness for odd things.
Personally I think the safest way to deal with this dreadful outbreak is to not watch the news, listen to the radio or read a newspaper.
I'd agree with you but it's difficult when your daughter txts you to say she's being sent home from school because a girl in her year has tested positive. Luckily she's already getting better.
Nina
Last edited by NewsBot : 30th April 2009 at 02:23 PM.
Reason: fixed quote
Just as some countries are stupidly culling the pig population (its not being passed ffrom animals-to-human; its spreading via human-to-human), we have this game to inoculate pigs:
T-shirst are now appearing with these slogans:
"I went to Mexico and all I got was swine flu"
"Swine flu: bacon's revenge"
"I survived the swine flu pandemic 2009"
"Maybe the Muslims were right about pigs"
And now we have jokes about an impending "aporkalypse
Spam emails are also doing the rounds:
Quote:
Spam emails using "swine flu" as a keyword phrase have flooded the internet as opportunists seek to exploit concerns over the outbreak of the virus, a global cyber security firm warned Thursday.
"Spammers have quickly taken advantage of this state of alert to extend their spam campaigns," Japanese security software maker Trend Micro said in a statement issued in Madrid.
Spam emails with subject lines such as "Swine flu affects entire world" or "Swine flu epidemic" have been detected as well as those that claim to have a message from Mexican President Felipe Calderon outlining new measures that have been taken against the disease.
Can I strongly suggest that everyone read this article in a Melbourne paper by Andrew Bolt. He is a bit of a right winger, but his views on this alleged outbreak are worth considering.
Here are some snippets:
Quote:
GOD, save us! We're all going to die all over again, and from yet another foreign virus.
"We could have a billion people dying worldwide," warns the US National Centre for Disaster Preparedness.
Oops, I misread my notes. That claim was actually from the great bird flu scare of 2005, which in the end killed just 257 people.
"Apocalypse bug!" cries CNN. "Killer virus," howls a Newsweek cover.
Oops again. Those headlines are actually from the great Ebola scare of 1995, which actually killed just 800 people, all in Africa.
No, the killer virus stalking us this time is swine flu.
So here's the swine flu warning from the US Health, Education and Welfare Department: "The projections are that the virus will kill one million Americans."
Damn. Wrong again. That headline is, in fact, from the great swine flu scare of 1976, during which just one American died from the virus, but another 33 from the vaccinations the US Government ordered in its Do Something panic.
It's so often the same scary story now, isn't it? Remember the great bird flu scare of 1997, with headlines such as "Race to prevent world epidemic"? Just six dead.
Remember the great SARS scare of 2003, which the BBC warned "could have a similar impact to the 1918 flu epidemic that killed 50 million"? Fewer than 1000 dead, most in poorer Asian countries with even poorer health care.
Now here we go again, once more frightening ourselves half to death - sicker from the scare than the disease.
Quote:
Almost all the sick in other countries are recovering quickly, as they do from any other flu when treated properly, leading the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention to note: "So far, this is not looking like very, very severe influenza.''
Yet see already the whole apocalypse industry swing into full scare mode.
"Swine flu 'could kill up to 120 million'," shrieks London's Metro newspaper, quoting the giddy National Institute of Medical Research.
The Rudd Government announces in its own typical Do Something way that it's given itself the power to turn back aeroplanes and "detain" people merely "suspected" of swinish sniffles.
Quote:
Even "normal" flu and/or pneumonia already kills about 3000 Australians every year, and 36,000 Americans. And all without a single headline.
Yet here we are freaking more about seven dead from flu in Mexico than we do over thousands dead right at home. How mad is that?
Quote:
But even all that doesn't quite explain these recent panics.
I mean, see how pathetically easy it's been to scare us over the past few decades - over nuclear reactors, looming famines, the "population bomb", acid rain, genetically modified crops, the Y2K bug, and now global warming, the mother earth of all scares.
Is it that with God dead, we realise there's absolutely nothing between us and doom but our giddy selves?
Or is our real problem that we've built so many institutions that rely on fear for their power, funds and prestige?
Think of the media, selling scares. Think of governments, hyping scares from which they'll "save" us. Of drug companies, selling scare-cures. Of activists, scaring up members. Of the United Nations, demanding world governance to fight scares it's done most to whip up.
__________________
Craig Payne
Department of Podiatry
La Trobe University
Melbourne, Australia http://www.latrobe.edu.au/podiatry
__________________________________________________ ___________________________________ God put me on this earth to accomplish a certain number of things - right now I am so far behind, I will never die.
The views expressed above are those of the author and not that of La Trobe University This is where I am, where are you?
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Craig Payne For This Useful Post:
Would be interesting to see the amount of deaths due to the "flu" last year compared to the current deaths due to the "swine flu". I would imagine the "flu" related deaths in any given year would swamp the current so called pandemic numbers.
Would be interesting to see the amount of deaths due to the "flu" last year compared to the current deaths due to the "swine flu". I would imagine the "flu" related deaths in any given year would swamp the current so called pandemic numbers.
I think we posted at the same time. According to the article by Andrew Bolt I quoted above (everyone has to read it) and he is not necessarily always the most reliable or authoriative source on this, but he said:
Quote:
Even "normal" flu and/or pneumonia already kills about 3000 Australians every year, and 36,000 Americans. And all without a single headline.
Yet here we are freaking more about seven dead from flu in Mexico than we do over thousands dead right at home. How mad is that?
__________________
Craig Payne
Department of Podiatry
La Trobe University
Melbourne, Australia http://www.latrobe.edu.au/podiatry
__________________________________________________ ___________________________________ God put me on this earth to accomplish a certain number of things - right now I am so far behind, I will never die.
The views expressed above are those of the author and not that of La Trobe University This is where I am, where are you?
An issue which is brought to focus in this matter is how effective is a face mask as a prophilaxis? I seem to recall reading a paper which says the mask protects the nasal passages for a matter of seconds which makes them pretty ineffective for obviating nail dust particles. How about air borne viruses?
I think we posted at the same time. According to the article by Andrew Bolt I quoted above (everyone has to read it) and he is not necessarily always the most reliable or authoriative source on this, but he said:
Great minds think alike Craig!
Not to say the authors article above is the evidence based bible on the subject matter, but even if those stats are true (which I don't doubt as they sound realistic to me) then are we over reacting a little here?
I would argue that NSAIDs contribute to more deaths each year than the swine flu, but WHO doesn't ban them?
I think in a media and profit driven world sometimes we get hijacked into mundane topics.
Who knows - I would have thought the downfall of humanity would have been due to something much worse than SWINE FLU. Just think, all the times we have talked about old peace, all the diseases we have conquered, all the hurdles mankind has leaped over - only to be exterminated (if you believe the media) by swine flu!
An issue which is brought to focus in this matter is how effective is a face mask as a prophilaxis? I seem to recall reading a paper which says the mask protects the nasal passages for a matter of seconds which makes them pretty ineffective for obviating nail dust particles. How about air borne viruses?
What say you?
toeslayer
Toeslayer,
Considering a recent article published by WHO suggested it is only transmissible by direct contact, I would think face masks are useless. Another marketing beat up?
...by Andrew Bolt. He is a bit of a right winger, ...
Craig the "UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR!" a raving rightwingnut would have been closer to reality. A quote from the article, which you quoted
"...... and now global warming, the mother earth of all scares", Andrew Bolt has been on this crusade, along with other fruit-loops, for a while now. That's right the vast majority of climatologists are wrong, thanks Andrew!
Craig the "UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR!" a raving rightwingnut would have been closer to reality. A quote from the article, which you quoted!
I love reading him, just like I enjoy watching Bill O'Reilly on Fox News ..... I only do it because of the reactions that their comments get; the hate mail they generate (do a Google search for Bill O'Reilly sucks) ... its entertaining.
On this occasion, I do, however, agree with the sentiments that Andrew Bolt is expressing (I have not seen Bill O'Reilly in a few days, but wonder what his take on this epidemic is)
__________________
Craig Payne
Department of Podiatry
La Trobe University
Melbourne, Australia http://www.latrobe.edu.au/podiatry
__________________________________________________ ___________________________________ God put me on this earth to accomplish a certain number of things - right now I am so far behind, I will never die.
The views expressed above are those of the author and not that of La Trobe University This is where I am, where are you?
For those interested I have adopted an immunisation approach.
I reckon an intake of 1 pork scratching, 3 times daily, may help boost immunity against all forms of swine flu
Side effects are minimal with the exception of a vocal tendency to an "oink" in midst conversation and a strange curly appearance developing in male appendages.
It would appear that many more healthy pigs will die from the panic slaughtering of healthy pigs.
Now this is a distraction from the world economy.
Rats should have bought shares in phamaceuticls companies. Nothing like health scare to scare the brainless into the mass consumption of drugs. YEEHHAAA better dividends and profits.
Now if only i can cause panic food buying and storage of food then again better dividends and profits. YYYYEEEEEEHHHHAAAAA
Now the govt KRUDD and his henchmen can be seen to being decisive in this situation. And when only a couple of budgies die from the pig flu thay can stand tall and state:
Thanks to the Govts decisive action we were able to intervene and prevent the deaths of 1 million labour voters ( sorry citizens ) of theis Great Country. This will result in the return toi normal life for all WORKING FAMILIES. etc etc.
Still sending Aussie Ministers to mexico was a fantastic piece of timing.
regards David
i have a slightly scratchy sore throat with a sniffly nose but no headache yet.
Update:
From ctv.ca: Worldwide swine flu deaths surpass 10,000
Quote:
The worldwide death rate from H1N1 for this year has surpassed 10,000.
The World Health Organization said Friday that at least 10,582 people have died from swine flu, and 208 countries have reported lab-confirmed cases.
But the fight against the virus appears to be doing well.
The WHO says that swine flu activity has substantially declined in Canada and the U.S. to near seasonal baselines.
In a statement on its website, it also says swine flu diagnoses have tapered off in the U.S. over the past month.
A look at preliminary statistics shows the overall severity of the pandemic hasn't changed, but in the Northern Hemisphere, infection seems to be most common during the winter season, compared to the summer.
Infections are also declining in Europe, but 99 per cent of all flu cases there are H1N1.
In some countries in Western, Central, and Southeast Asia, infections continue to rise.
However, the number of confirmed cases is going down in Japan, parts of China, Taiwan and Mongolia, as well as South America and the Caribbean.
The 10,000 number only counts H1N1 deaths in 2009 up until December 13.
The worldwide total for seasonal flu related deaths is generally between 250,000 and 500,000 a year, according to the WHO.
Swine virus outbreak
I was cruelly mocked when i laid in this store but i'm bloody glad I did!
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